Market Outlook
November 12, 2018
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Market Cues
BSE Sensex
(0.2)
(79)
35,158
Indian markets are likely to open negative tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
Nifty
(0.)
(13)
10,585
U.S. stocks moved mostly lower during the trading day on Friday. With the drop on
Mid Cap
0.6
97
14,944
the day, the Dow pulled back off its best closing level in a month. The Dow fell 0.8
Small Cap
0.6
85
14,671
percent to 25,989 while the Nasdaq tumbled 1.7 percent to 7,406.
Bankex
0.2
59
29,098
U.K. shares fell on Friday as oil futures entered a bear market and data showed
China's producer price inflation slowed for the fourth month in October on cooling
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
domestic demand. The benchmark FTSE 100 moved down by 0.5% to close at
Dow Jones
(0.8)
(22)
25,989
7,103.
Nasdaq
(1.7)
(124)
7,406
On domestic front, Indian shares ended modestly lower on Friday as weak global
FTSE
(0.5)
(38)
7,103
cues overshadowed investor optimism over continued fall in crude oil prices. The BSE
Nikkei
(1.0)
(236)
22,250
Sensex was down by 0.2% to 35,158.
Hang Seng
(2.4)
(625)
25,601
Shanghai Com
(1.4)
(36)
2,598
News Analysis
M&M eyes No. 3 spot in heavy-duty truck market with 10% share in 2 years
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Advances
1,337
929
Declines
1,200
802
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Unchanged
142
329
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Volumes (` Cr)
Refer Pg5 onwards
BSE
1,820
Top Picks
NSE
853
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
581
867
49.2
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Buy
232
473
103.9
FII
(1,077)
(1,418)
(6,857)
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
250
330
32.0
*MFs
1,125
3,967
80,584
Bata India
Others
Buy
1027
1,243
21.0
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
363
486
33.9
More Top Picks on Pg4
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
LINDEINDIA
583
20.0
Key Upcoming Events
INFIBEAM
58
17.0
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
STAR
476
11.1
Nov 12, 2018 AU
CPI QoQ
0.00
0.01
GDL
155
11.1
Nov 12,2018 AU
CPI YoY
0.02
0.02
PCJEWELLER
92
10.0
Nov 14,2018 Germany GDP nsa (YoY)
2.30
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
More Events on Pg7
INDIANB
229
-12.4
TATASTEELPP
119
-5.0
SHANKARA
1033
-4.5
OBEROIRLTY
422
-4.0
KEI
363
-3.7
As on Nov 09, 2018
Market Outlook
November 12, 2018
News Analysis
M&M eyes No. 3 spot in heavy-duty truck market with 10% share in 2
years
When Devendra Kohli, general manager (operations) at LTC Logistics, had to
purchase trucks for his company three years ago, he tried a relatively new brand,
the Blazo, the heavy-duty truck of Mahindra Trucks and Buses (MTB). But the
decision wasn’t an easy one. Unlike models from Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland,
it didn’t have a long-running history to depend upon. Kohli, therefore, decided to
do a comparative analysis of the three brands through a trial run that included
running the trucks on the same route, with an equivalent amount of loading. The
Blazo, with its superior technology and lower cost per km, impressed him the most,
said Kohli. Since then his company, which owns and operates more than 400
trucks of varied brands, now owns
40 units of the Blazo. This is despite
the Blazo commanding a premium of Rs 100,000-150,000 over its rivals.
A steady climb in volumes has helped the company double its market share in the
segment to 5 per cent in the first six months of the financial year from the year-ago
period and it has now set its sights on a 10 per cent share in the next two years.
“Till a year back, of all the customers we reached out to, not more than 30 per
cent would actively consider us. That has changed and 70-80 per cent are now
considering us,” said Sahay. The share of such operators in the overall goods
transport sector is 12-13 per cent. At present repeat buyers account for more than
40 per cent of what the company sells every month.
Economic and Political News
Tamil Nadu aims to attract $33 bn from sovereign and sharia-compliant
Corporate News
Market Outlook
November 12, 2018
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
Coal India Ltd - November 12, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
2QFY19E
2QFY18
y-o-y (%)
1QFY19
q-o-q (%)
Sales
21,825
18,148
20.3
24,261
(10.0)
EBIDTA
4,529
1,231
267.9
5,732
(21.0)
%
20.8
6.8
23.6
PAT
3137
369
750.2
3,784
(17.1)
Aurobindo Pharma Ltd - November 12, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
2QFY19E
2QFY18
y-o-y (%)
1QFY19
q-o-q (%)
Sales
4,550
4,436
2.6
4,250
7.0
EBIDTA
950
1,117
(14.9)
711
33.7
%
20.9
25.2
16.7
PAT
606
781
-22.5
456
32.8
Britannia Industries Ltd - November 12, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
2QFY19E
2QFY18
y-o-y (%)
1QFY19
q-o-q (%)
Sales
2,867
2,545
12.6
2,544
12.7
EBIDTA
449
378
18.8
389
15.5
%
15.7
14.9
15.3
PAT
305
261
16.7
258
18.1
NMDC Ltd - November 12, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
2QFY19E
2QFY18
y-o-y (%)
1QFY19
q-o-q (%)
Sales
2556
2,421
5.6
2,422
5.5
EBIDTA
1413
1,203
17.4
1,424
(0.8)
%
55.3
49.7
58.8
PAT
959
844
13.6
975
(1.7)
Shree Cement - November 12, 2018
Particulars (` cr)
2QFY19E
2QFY18
y-o-y (%)
1QFY19
q-o-q (%)
Sales
2,529
2,137
18.3
3,070
(17.6)
EBIDTA
497
560
(11.2)
575
(13.5)
%
19.7
26.2
18.7
PAT
188
212
(11.4)
279
(32.7)
Market Outlook
November 12, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
5,595
581
867
49.2
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
7,295
232
473
103.9
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
229,008
355
416
17.2
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
2,866
363
486
33.9
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,888
330
475
43.9
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,841
393
752
91.3
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades
at an inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
219,476
7,265
10,820
48.9
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,391
258
424
64.3
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,683
755
1,000
32.5
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
22,630
102
198
94.1
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,107
250
330
32.0
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
529,869
1,949
2,350
20.6
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Market Outlook
November 12, 2018
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on back
of new launches and facelifts in some of the
M&M
99,045
796
1,050
31.9
model ) and strong growth in Tractors segment
coupled by its strong brand recall and
improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of
55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
2,704
860
1,135
32.0
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
of
~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
13,199
1,027
1,243
21.0
mainly due to new product launches, higher
number of stores addition and focus on
women’s high growth segment and margin
improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by rising
Shriram Transport Finance
28,020
1,234
1,764
42.9
bond yields on the back of stronger pricing
power and an enhancing ROE by 750bps over
FY18-20E, supported by decline in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
17,824
184
327
77.7
line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by
FY19 on back of strong operating margin
improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,651
1,130
1,287
13.9
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
47,651
813
870
7.0
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees
Yes Bank
52,659
227
365
60.8
income. We expect YES to grow its advance
much higher than industry and improvement in
asset quality to support profitability.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR
of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA
RBL Bank
23,458
551
690
25.2
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by margin
expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the leading
brands in kitchen appliances in India after its
successful transformation from a single product
TTK Prestige
8,131
6,979
7,500
7.5
company to offering an entire gamut of home
and kitchen appliances. We are expecting a
CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25% in PAT over
FY2018-20.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
November 12, 2018
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential
growth in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-
20E. The growth would be led by changing
renewable energy industry dynamics in favor of
Inox Winds
1,978
89
127
42.7
wind energy segment viz. changes in auction
regime from Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse
auction regime and Government’s guidance for
10GW auction in FY19 and FY20 each.
Considering the strong CV demand due to
change in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger
pre-buying activities), pick up in construction
Ashok Leyland
34,756
118
156
32.2
activities and no significant impact on industry
due to recent axle load norms, we recommend
BUY on Ashok Leyland at current valuations.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,857
290
360
24.1
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,335
1,565
2,178
39.2
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,419
1,790
2,500
39.7
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
1,852
151
256
69.5
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
27,203
136
210
54.4
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Market Outlook
November 12, 2018
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time Country
Event Description
Unit Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Nov 12, 2018
6:00 AM
AU
CPI QoQ
% Change
3Q
0.00
0.01
Nov 12, 2018
0-Jan-00
AU
CPI YoY
% Change
3Q
0.02
0.02
Nov 14, 2018
0-Jan-00
Germany
GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change 3Q P
2.30Nov 14, 2018
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
November 12, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
8.2
6.9
6.9
8.0
8.1
6.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.3
7.0
6.3
4.5
6.1
5.0
4.1
5.6
3.9
6.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.6
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.3
4.2
50.0
3.6
3.7
4.0
3.3
48.0
3.0
46.0
2.0
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
November 12, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Market Outlook
November 12, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
75,429
(4.0)
5.6
2.7
Russia
Micex
4,327
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
11,515
0.7
6.1
14.1
China
Shanghai Composite
2,682
(1.5)
(11.3)
(20.8)
South Africa
Top 40
50,441
1.7
(1.7)
1.9
Mexico
Mexbol
49,612
2.2
6.3
(1.0)
Indonesia
LQ45
937
(2.7)
(2.6)
(4.7)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,804
(0.1)
1.6
1.7
Thailand
SET 50
1,136
2.5
0.7
9.9
USA
Dow Jones
26,155
3.4
3.9
17.5
UK
FTSE
7,304
(4.0)
(4.3)
0.7
Japan
Nikkei
23,095
4.0
1.1
19.8
Germany
DAX
12,124
(0.3)
(5.5)
(3.2)
France
CAC
5,353
0.9
(1.8)
2.1
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Market Outlook
November 12, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
31-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,235
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
November 12, 2018
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
November 12, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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